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Eye on the Sky

July 28, 2015

Detailed Forecast

Today

Partly to mostly sunny this afternoon. Hot and humid, with highs from the mid 80s to around 90s generally, low to mid 80s northeast and in the Adirondacks. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms, with the best chance over southern Québec, northern Vermont, and northern New Hampshire. Severe storms possible. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph, becoming west.

Tonight

Partly cloudy with areas of fog. Chance for a shower or thunderstorm, mainly northeast. Small hail and gusty winds could accompany any thunderstorms. Lows from the mid 60s to around 70 in the Champlain, St. Lawrence, and Hudson Valleys, low to mid 60s elsewhere. Light and variable winds.

Wednesday

Mostly sunny, hot and humid. Isolated afternoon showers or thunderstorms. Highs from the mid 80s to around 90, low to mid 90s in the valleys of southern New Hampshire, and in the broad valleys west of the Greens. Light and variable winds.

Wednesday Night

Partly cloudy and very mild. Lows in the mid to upper 60s, some lower 70s in the valleys west of the Greens. Light south winds, except 5 to 10 mph in the Champlain Valley.

Significant/Hazardous Weather

The coverage of any thunderstorms will be isolated to widely scattered, but any storms that manage to form could contain small hail and damaging winds.

Extended Forecast

Today

Partly to mostly sunny this afternoon. Hot and humid, with highs from the mid 80s to around 90s generally, low to mid 80s northeast and in the Adirondacks. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms, with the best chance over southern Québec, northern Vermont, and northern New Hampshire. Severe storms possible. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph, becoming west.

Tonight

Partly cloudy with areas of fog. Chance for a shower or thunderstorm, mainly northeast. Small hail and gusty winds could accompany any thunderstorms. Lows from the mid 60s to around 70 in the Champlain, St. Lawrence, and Hudson Valleys, low to mid 60s elsewhere. Light and variable winds.

Wednesday

Mostly sunny, hot and humid. Isolated afternoon showers or thunderstorms. Highs from the mid 80s to around 90, low to mid 90s in the valleys of southern New Hampshire, and in the broad valleys west of the Greens. Light and variable winds.

Wednesday Night

Partly cloudy and very mild. Lows in the mid to upper 60s, some lower 70s in the valleys west of the Greens. Light south winds, except 5 to 10 mph in the Champlain Valley.

Thursday

Increasing clouds, with thunderstorms becoming likely during the afternoon, with severe storms possible. Valley highs in the low to mid 80s in the Adirondacks and southern Québec, mid to upper 80s elsewhere north, and upper 80s to lower 90s south. Winds becoming southwest at 5 to 10 mph.

Thursday Night

Good chance for evening showers and thunderstorms, then partly cloudy and turning less humid. Lows 56-66 northwest to southeast.

Friday

Mostly sunny, less humid. Highs 77-84 north, 80-87 south.

Friday Night

Mostly clear. Lows 55-64.

Saturday

Partly cloudy north, mostly sunny south. Slight chance for a PM shower north, and southern mountains. Highs 78-88.

Significant/Hazardous Weather

The coverage of any thunderstorms will be isolated to widely scattered, but any storms that manage to form could contain small hail and damaging winds.

Recreational Forecast

General:

Partly to mostly sunny. Very warm and humid. Highs 80-90. Widely scattered PM thunderstorms. A few thunderstorms may be accompanied by small hail and strong, gusty winds. The best chance will be over southern Quebec, northern Vermont, and northern New Hampshire. Light, variable wind becoming southwest to west 5-15 mph.

Brief:

This morning, a weak surface trough is heading off the New England coast. As expected, it kept a few thunderstorms rumbling overnight across the region, but that line of storms faded rapidly during the immediate pre-dawn hours across central Vermont and central New Hampshire though folks in northern Vermont and northern New Hampshire did get a good light show and dousing between 11 p.m. and 3 to 4 a.m. as the line traveled southeastward. The surface map is little changed from yesterday, with HIGH pressure centered over southeast Michigan and ridged toward the Ozarks. Aloft, a strong ridge remains centered to our southwest. A vigorous northwest flow around its northeastern periphery is sweeping embedded disturbances over the VPR region from northern Ontario. One that was northwest of James Bay yesterday will move over us later this afternoon and evening, triggering widely scattered thunderstorms in the very warm, humid air mass now in place. The favorably oriented jet stream aloft should permit some stronger storms to develop, so there is the risk of some small hail in a few of these. Tomorrow, the ridge will be at its strongest over us and should squash almost all thunderstorm development. Thursday, an advancing cold front will bring fairly widespread, organized convection during the afternoon and evening, some of which could approach severe limits. We’ll keep you posted.

Winds:

Wind today light and variable, becoming west to northwest 5-15 mph during the afternoon. Tonight: Light and variable. Wednesday: Light and variable. On Lake Champlain’s open waters the National Weather Service forecast is for south wind 5-15 mph today; and southeast to south wind 5-15 mph tonight. Wednesday the wind on the open water is forecast to be south, diminishing to around 5 mph during the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet. There is a slight chance for thunderstorms this afternoon, possibly accompanied by small hail—wind and waves may be locally higher in the vicinity of any thunderstorms. For more details on lake Champlain go to: http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BTV&product=REC&issuedby=BTV

Mountain:

Today: Partly sunny. Widely scattered showers or thunderstorms. Isolated cells could produce small hail and strong wind. Tonight: Partly cloudy, widely scattered showers or thunderstorms. A few cells could produce small hail and strong wind. Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Isolated thunderstorms.

Winds Today Wednesday Thursday
2000ft SW>NW 05-15 mph SW > W 05-15 mph SW 10-15 mph
4000ft WNW 10-15 mph W 10-20 mph WSW 10-20 mph
6000ft NW 20-30 mph WNW 15-25 mph W 20-30 mph
Temperatures Today Wednesday Thursday
2000ft Nr 81 Nr 82 Nr 82
4000ft Nr 70 Nr 72 Nr 72
6000ft Nr 61 Nr 62 Nr 62