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Eye on the Sky

February 19, 2018

Detailed Forecast

Today

***FLOOD WATCH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING: FOR VERMONT FROM RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES NORTHWARD, AND FOR NEW YORK FROM THE ADIRONDACKS NORTHWARD***

Tonight

Cloudy with scattered rain showers, likely in the evening along and west of the southern Green Mountains. Lows in the 30s northeast, otherwise upper 30s to mid 40s. South to southwest winds 5 to 15 mph, except becoming east to northeast 5 to 10 mph in southern Quebec toward sunrise.

Tuesday

Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers, mainly north, most numerous near the Québec border. Highs ranging widely, from the 40s northeast and near 40 in Québec, to the 50s elsewhere north, and 50s to around 60 south. Wind becoming south to southwest 5 to 15 mph, except light and variable in Québec.

Tuesday Night

Showers likely far north, scattered to around Route 2, and partly cloudy in the south. Very mild, with early lows mainly in the 40s, then temperature steady or rising. South to southwest winds 10 to 15 mph, gusting to 25 mph in the Champlain Valley.

Significant/Hazardous Weather

Melting snow and ice jams could create flooding from later tonight into Wednesday. The greatest concerns are along rivers where ice jams that formed in January are frozen in place. Ice jams can cause sudden, rapid rises in rivers.

Extended Forecast

Today

***FLOOD WATCH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING: FOR VERMONT FROM RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES NORTHWARD, AND FOR NEW YORK FROM THE ADIRONDACKS NORTHWARD***

Tonight

Cloudy with scattered rain showers, likely in the evening along and west of the southern Green Mountains. Lows in the 30s northeast, otherwise upper 30s to mid 40s. South to southwest winds 5 to 15 mph, except becoming east to northeast 5 to 10 mph in southern Quebec toward sunrise.

Tuesday

Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers, mainly north, most numerous near the Québec border. Highs ranging widely, from the 40s northeast and near 40 in Québec, to the 50s elsewhere north, and 50s to around 60 south. Wind becoming south to southwest 5 to 15 mph, except light and variable in Québec.

Tuesday Night

Showers likely far north, scattered to around Route 2, and partly cloudy in the south. Very mild, with early lows mainly in the 40s, then temperature steady or rising. South to southwest winds 10 to 15 mph, gusting to 25 mph in the Champlain Valley.

Wednesday

Showers likely near and north of the Québec border, scattered northeast and in areas along and west of the southern Greens, and chance southeast late. Again very mild, with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s north; 60s to around 70 south. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph, gusting to 30 mph in the Champlain and St. Lawrence valleys.

Wednesday Night

Showers ending north followed by partial clearing, with scattered showers tapering off south. Turning colder. Lows in the 20s north, 30s south.

Thursday

Variable clouds. Colder. Highs mainly in the 30s, close to 30 over the higher terrain north, and a few low 40s in the warmer valleys southeast.

Thursday Night

Fair north. Variable clouds south, very slight chance for snow showers. Lows in the mid teens to mid 20s north, close to 10 in the cold spots northeast, and holding in the 20s south.

Friday

Increasing clouds. Highs in the 30s to low 40s.

Significant/Hazardous Weather

Melting snow and ice jams could create flooding from later tonight into Wednesday. The greatest concerns are along rivers where ice jams that formed in January are frozen in place. Ice jams can cause sudden, rapid rises in rivers.

Recreational Forecast

General:

***FLOOD WATCH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING: FOR VERMONT FROM RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES NORTHWARD, AND FOR NEW YORK FROM THE ADIRONDACKS NORTHWARD***

Increasing clouds this afternoon, with a rising chance of rain showers, becoming likely from the Adirondacks into the northeast Kingdom. Highs in the low to mid 40s. South winds 10 to 15 mph, gusting to 25 mph.

Brief:

Although winter appears to be hanging around, thanks to the snow and near-seasonable temperatures this weekend, a surge of warmth is headed our way, part of what could be some rather topsy-turvy weather over the next few to several weeks. This morning we start with a large high pressure system off the New England coast, expected to stall there today, and then drift south through mid-week. The clockwise circulation around this high has formed a broad, sweeping southwesterly airflow from the Gulf of Mexico up into the Great Lakes. It is bounded on the west and north by a weather front starting in central Quebec to our north, southwest into the western Great Lakes and then down into the Great Plains. There, a series of storms will lift north, while the front to our north edges south through tomorrow, but it should stall before reaching us. This will concentrate one area of rain and showers tonight into Tuesday, more so in the north closer to the front. But during Tuesday, the action of the storms heading into the Great Lakes will lift the front back to our north, sending near record warmth over us through Wednesday, accompanied by some scattered showers. Readings in the 50s and 60s, and the rain showers, will causing significant melting of the snowpack, spilling in to the rivers. There, a number of frozen ice jams and areas of river ice will present a potential for flooding. The National Weather Service has issued a Flood Watch late tonight into Wednesday for northeast NY and all of VT, except the far south. Wednesday night sees the arrival of a cold front, though the general airflow will remain southwesterly, which means the front will be slow to move through, and the amount of cooling that arrives behind the front will be limited. In fact, the front should stall just off the East Coast, and then lift back toward us next weekend with some light precipitation, mostly rain, but some wintry mix possible. The last week of February could also see warm air wavering across the region, but a significant change in the weather pattern is expected in March, with no fast progression into spring.

Winds:

South winds today increasing to 10 to 15 mph, gusting to 30 mph east of the Green Mountains, and 15 to 25 mph, gusting to 40 mph from the Green Mountains west. Tonight, south winds continuing at 10 to 15 mph, gusting to 30 mph. On Tuesday, light winds northeast, and through much of Quebec, and southwest 5 to 15 mph through most of the region. Wednesday’s outlook calls for southwest winds 10 to 15 mph, gusting to 30 mph over the higher terrain, and through the Champlain and St. Lawrence valleys.

For more details on Lake Champlain, go to: http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BTV&product=REC&issuedby=BTV

Mountain:

Morning sun will giving way to thickening and lower clouds, with a rising chance of showers of a wintry mix or rain, west to east this afternoon. Moderate southwest winds will increase, and temperatures climbing into the 30s. Periods of rain will continue tonight and Tuesday north, the summits obscured in clouds, while showers end south, and clouds lift above the southern summits Tuesday afternoon, perhaps a few breaks of sun. Moderate to strong west winds, and temperatures climbing to the 40s and 50s. Wednesday’s outlook continues to be unseasonably warm, with 40s and 50s. The northern summits will be in and out of the clouds, with a chance of showers, especially in the afternoon. Variable clouds south. Moderate west winds.

Winds Today Tuesday Wednesday
2000ft SW 25 to 35 mph WSW 25 to 40 mph W 25 to 40 mph
4000ft SW 30>45 mph WSW 30 to 45 mph W 35 to 50 mph
6000ft W>WSW 40 to 55 mph W 50 to 60 mph W 70 to 90 mph
Temperatures Today Tuesday Wednesday
2000ft 38 NE/42 SW 45 NE/55 SW 55 N/65 S
4000ft 30s 50 to 55 50 to 55
6000ft near 32 40s 40s

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