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  Detailed Forecast

 

 

 

 

 

July 27, 2014

The forecast for all of Vermont, and adjoining New Hampshire, New York, Quebec, and Massachusetts:

425 PM EDT 

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy this evening with widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy later on, rain or showers increasing from the southwest towards morning. Lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s. South to southwest wind 8-15 mph diminishing to light and variable.

MONDAY: Showers and thunderstorms southeast half of VT and all of NH; showers blending into a steady rain with a few embedded thunderstorms northwest half of VT, e’n NY, and southern Quebec. Highs in the 70s. Wind becoming north and increasing to 8-15 mph northwest half of the region; light, variable wind becoming southeast, then backing through northeast to the northwest late in the day over the southeast half of the region.

MONDAY NT: Rain or showers diminishing. Partial clearing late, south. Lows 48-58.  North to northwest wind 8-15 mph with a few higher gusts before midnight.

TUESDAY: Any remaining showers northeast tapering off during the morning. Otherwise partly cloudy or becoming so. Cool. Highs 66-76. West to northwest wind 5-15 mph.

Extended Forecast: 

Tuesday Nt: Partly cloudy or becoming so. Slight chance for a shower. Lows 45-55, except 40-45 in Adirondack cold hollows.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy, slight chance for an afternoon shower. Highs 69-77.

 Wednesday Nt: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Patchy fog. Lows 48-58.

Thursday: Variable clouds. Scattered PM showers and thunderstorms.  Highs 70-78.

Thursday Nt: Chance for evening showers or thunderstorms—best chance northeast. Otherwise partly cloudy.  Lows in the 50s.

Friday: Partly cloudy. Very slight chance for a PM shower or thunderstorm. Highs 73-82.

SIGNIFICANT/HAZARDOUS WEATHER:
None.



  Recreational  Return to top  

General Forecast:

A shower or thunderstorm likely through mid-morning west, and through noon east, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers or thunderstorms during the PM. Highs 72-82.  Wind becoming west-southwest 8-15 mph.

Brief Discussion:

A complex frontal zone is slipping into the region this morning. The remains of a pacific cold front will move from New York State to the western border of Vermont by late morning, and to the Connecticut Valley by early afternoon. Along and ahead of that dissipating front a band of showers and thunderstorms should bring a quick .10-.50” of rain.  Behind it will come a 12 to 18 hour period of mostly cloudy conditions with scattered showers and thunderstorms as a deep trough for this time of year amplifies over the eastern United States. A potent disturbance within that trough will spin up LOW pressure over the lower Great Lakes or upper Ohio Valley later this afternoon and evening. The old pacific front will be overtaken by a developing polar front during this time, and the wind over northwestern Vermont, southern Quebec, and the Adirondacks will gradually shift to the north in response. By Monday morning the LOW will be over southwestern New England and fairly deep for this time of year. As it tracks northeast, steady rain will fall over the northwest half of Vermont, far northern New York, and southern Quebec, with more showery rain over the southeast half.  The rain or showers will diminish Monday night, but by then a solid .50-1.00” additional will have fallen, with locally greater amounts possible across the northern Green Mountains. More settled weather will develop Tuesday, then persist through Friday.

 

Mountain Forecast:

Today: Summits in and out of the clouds. Showers or thunderstorms likely through midday, then a lesser but still good chance during the afternoon. Tonight: Scattered evening showers and thunderstorms; mostly cloudy with a slight chance for a shower in the hours around midnight; then a rising chance for rain or showers towards morning, particularly s'n Greens, Tacs, Berkshires, s'n Adirondacks.  Monday: Rain north, rain to showers south. Chance for a thunderstorm. Rain may be moderate or heavy at times. Summits in cloud. 

WINDS.............Sunday.........................Monday

2000 FT........WSW 10-15 mph.............SE-NE 5-10 > N 10-15 mph

4000 FT........WSW 20-35 mph...............E-SE 5-15 > N 20-30 mph

6000 FT..........SW 25-40 mph.....................S 15-30 > 30-45 mph

TEMPERATURES

2000 FT...........low 70s............................65-70

4000 FT...........low 60s............................Nr 60

6000 FT...........low 50s............................low 50s

 

 

Winds at Lower Elevations:

A Lake Thunderstorm Advisory for Lake Champlain has been posted by the National Weather Service 

Wind today south to southwest 8-15 mph on land; on Lake Champlain south 12-25 mph, waves 1-3 feet. Tonight: Wind becoming light and variable on land; on Lake Champlain south wind shifting to west 5-10 mph early in the evening, the backing to southeast at the same speed after midnight. Waves diminishing to 1 foot or less. Monday: Light and variable over southern Vermont and most of New Hampshire becoming light northerly towards evening, elsewhere on land light, variable wind becoming north around 10 mph. On Lake Champlain wind backing to northeast 5-15 mph during the morning, then to north and increasing to 12-25 mph during the afternoon. Waves 1-2 feet. 

Wind and wave forecast for Lake Champlain is from the National Weather Service. 



  The Weather Journal  Return to top  

July 27th’s sunrise began the daylight hours at 5:32 this morning. The sunset at 8:21 finishes the day 14 hours and 49 minutes later.

Weather events during the past decade have made many of us aware of the localized nature of summer rains, including the floods of 1998 in the Mad River Valley, and 2002 in the Passumpsic Valley.  What appear to be isolated instances are more frequently part of a narrowly focused area or band of rain, rather than just a single point.  On this date in 1969, such a local rain event occurred, with up to 6 inches of rain reported near Ascutney, VT, with localized but severe damage.



  Farm and Garden Journal  Return to top  

General Forecast:

A shower or thunderstorm likely through mid-morning west, and through noon east, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers or thunderstorms during the PM. Highs 72-82.  Wind becoming west-southwest 8-15 mph.

Brief Discussion:

A complex frontal zone is slipping into the region this morning. The remains of a pacific cold front will move from New York State to the western border of Vermont by late morning, and to the Connecticut Valley by early afternoon. Along and ahead of that dissipating front a band of showers and thunderstorms should bring a quick .10-.50” of rain.  Behind it will come a 12 to 18 hour period of mostly cloudy conditions with scattered showers and thunderstorms as a deep trough for this time of year amplifies over the eastern United States. A potent disturbance within that trough will spin up LOW pressure over the lower Great Lakes or upper Ohio Valley later this afternoon and evening. The old pacific front will be overtaken by a developing polar front during this time, and the wind over northwestern Vermont, southern Quebec, and the Adirondacks will gradually shift to the north in response. By Monday morning the LOW will be over southwestern New England and fairly deep for this time of year. As it tracks northeast, steady rain will fall over the northwest half of Vermont, far northern New York, and southern Quebec, with more showery rain over the southeast half.  The rain or showers will diminish Monday night, but by then a solid .50-1.00” additional will have fallen, with locally greater amounts possible across the northern Green Mountains. More settled weather will develop Tuesday, then persist through Friday.

Rainfall Amounts: 

24 hours ending Monday 8 a.m.: 100% coverage. .10-.75", spot amounts to 1.00". Most of this will occur during the first half of Sunday, with a relative break expected Sunday evening.  Rain will increase again towards Monday morning over southern Vermont, s'n New Hampshire, Massachusetts, and eastern New York.

24 hours ending Tuesday 8 a.m: 100% coverage. A general rain of .50-1.00". However, there will be a stripe of 1"+ rainfall within the general area oriented southwest to northeast. At this time it looks like the best chance for this heavier rainfall will run from the southern Adirondacks through north-central and northwest Vermont, then into Quebec's Eastern Townships. 

24 hours ending Wednesday 8 a.m.: 30-50% coverage of T-.10", mainly northeast Vermont, n'n NH, and Eastern Townships on Tuesday morning. 

Drying Conditions: 

Today: Fair to poor. Minimum relative humidity 55-75%. 

Monday: Poor drying in rain or frequent showers and isolated thunderstorms. Minimum relative humidity 70%+

Tuesday: Improving to fair.  

Frost:   We will resume frost outlooks in September, or as conditions warrant.



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