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May 19, 2013
The forecast for all of Vermont, and adjoining New Hampshire, New York, Quebec, and Massachusetts:
435 PM EDT
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy; scattered evening showers near the Massachusetts border. Showers becoming likely in the Eastern Townships and far northern New Hampshire after midnight. A lesser chance for showers at that time over the St. Lawrence and Richilieu Valleys of southern Quebec, and far northern Vermont. Lows 48-57. South-SW wind 5-15 mph, except light and variable in deeper sheltered valleys.
MONDAY: Any showers ending by mid-morning far northeast. Thereafter mostly cloudy, scattered PM showers and isolated thunderstorms. Highs 69-79. S-SW wind 5-10 mph becoming W-NW at the same speed during the afternoon.
MONDAY NT: Mostly cloudy, with a chance of a shower or thunderstorm south. Any evening showers or thunderstorms north ending, followed by partial clearing. Lows 45-55 north, and 50s south. NW wind becoming N, then diminishing to light and variable.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy north, slight chance for a shower. Mostly cloudy south, chance for a shower or thunderstorm. Highs 67-72 north; 70-75 south. Light, variable wind becoming NE-SE 5-15 mph.
Extended Forecast:
Tuesday Nt: Becoming cloudy north, rising chance for showers. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers or thunderstorms south. Lows in the 40s north, 46-53 south.
Wednesday: Cloudy north; mostly cloudy south. Good chance for showers northeast, and slight chance for a thunderstorm. A shower or thunderstorm likely elsewhere. Highs in the 60s northeast, upper 60s to mid 70s elsewhere.
Wednesday Nt: Showers likely north. Lesser, but still good chance for showers south, and a slight chance for a thunderstorm. Lows in the 50s north; near 60 south.
Thursday: Showers or thunderstorms likely. Highs 68-73 northeast; 72-80 otherwise.
Thursday Nt: Showers and thunderstorms tapering to scattered sprinkles, turning cooler, and remaining mostly cloudy. Lows 45-55.
Friday: Mostly cloudy. Chance for a passing shower. Breezy and cooler. Highs 55-60 northeast; 60-65 northwest; 60s south.
SIGNIFICANT/HAZARDOUS WEATHER:
None.
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General Forecast:
THIS PM: Sun filtered through considerable high and patchy mid-level clouds; a slight chance of showers far south. Highs 65-73. South to southeast wind 5-15 mph, with a few gusts over 20 mph in the Champlain Valley.
Brief Discussion:
HIGH pressure has eased off the New England coast, and a light southerly flow has begun over the region. Aside from extreme southern Vermont and northern Massachusetts, where a stray shower may be noted on the very northern fringe of moisture edging off the mid-Atlantic coast, the day will be dry, but with sun filtered by considerable high clouds. These clouds are debris from showers now over central and eastern Ontario, and those showers are at the nose of a plume of moist air being drawn northeastward ahead of a cold front now pushing into central Ontario. Later tonight some of those showers will cross the Eastern Townships and far northern New Hampshire, and will graze other communities in the St. Lawrence/Richilieu Valleys of Quebec and border communities of far northern Vermont. As the cold front approaches us later Monday afternoon scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of it. The front will stall somewhere over New England Monday night, then oscillate north and south Tuesday through Thursday. Its final disposition is still uncertain, and so is the distribution of showers over the state at that time, but it will be a mild, unsettled period. Later in the week showers will become numerous as slow-moving LOW pressure drifts along the front towards New England. That’s good news for farmers and gardeners.
Mountain Forecast:
Today: Sun through considerable high, and patchy mid-level clouds. Summits in the clear. Tonight: Showers becoming likely northern White Mountains; lesser, but still good chance for the same far northern Green Mountains and Northeast Kingdom peaks. Slight chance for a shower northern Adirondacks. Monday: Showers ending Northeast Vermont and northern New Hampshire ranges by mid-morning. Otherwise partly to mostly cloudy, with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms developing during the afternoon over the Adirondacks, the northern and central Greens and the White Mountains. Summits northeast in cloud to start, then breaking free of cloud by middday. Northern summits in cloud in any showers/thunderstorms during the PM.
WINDS..........Sunday...........................Monday
2000 FT.....SSE 05-15 mph................SW 08-18 mph
4000 FT........S inc to 15-20 mph.........W 20-35 mph
6000 FT........S inc to 15-30 mph........NW 45-55 mph
TEMPERATURES
2000 FT..........64N-68S...................68N-72S
4000 FT..........54N-58S...................57N-62S
6000 FT...........Nr 43.......................Nr 46
Winds at Lower Elevations: Wind today South-SE wind 05-15 mph, except increasing to 15-25 mph on Lake Champlain. Waves on the lake building to 1-2 feet. Tonight: South-SW 05-15 mph, except 20-30 mph on Lake Champlain, waves building to 2-4 feet. Monday: SW 08-15 mph becoming W-NW at the same speed during the PM. On Lake Champlain SSW 20-30 mph early diminishing, then shifting to NW 5-15 mph during the PM. Waves 2-4 feet early, diminishing to 1 foot or less.
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Sunrise on this 19th of May at Montpelier was at 5:19, and will set this evening at 8:15, 14 hours and 56 minutes later.
On this date in 1883, Vermont experienced its worst forest fire in the state's history in the vicinity of Groton. And looking back over 200 years ago in 1780, smoke from fires was darkening the skies of New England on this date, though the fires were in the western US. It was reported that candles were needed to read, and birds went to roost in the middle of the day.
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General Forecast:
THIS PM: Sun filtered through considerable high and patchy mid-level clouds; a slight chance of showers far south. Highs 65-73. South to southeast wind 5-15 mph, with a few gusts over 20 mph in the Champlain Valley.
Brief Discussion:
HIGH pressure has eased off the New England coast, and a light southerly flow has begun over the region. Aside from extreme southern Vermont and northern Massachusetts, where a stray shower may be noted on the very northern fringe of moisture edging off the mid-Atlantic coast, the day will be dry, but with sun filtered by considerable high clouds. These clouds are debris from showers now over central and eastern Ontario, and those showers are at the nose of a plume of moist air being drawn northeastward ahead of a cold front now pushing into central Ontario. Later tonight some of those showers will cross the Eastern Townships and far northern New Hampshire, and will graze other communities in the St. Lawrence/Richilieu Valleys of Quebec and border communities of far northern Vermont. As the cold front approaches us later Monday afternoon scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of it. The front will stall somewhere over New England Monday night, then oscillate north and south Tuesday through Thursday. Its final disposition is still uncertain, and so is the distribution of showers over the state at that time, but it will be a mild, unsettled period. Later in the week showers will become numerous as slow-moving LOW pressure drifts along the front towards New England. That’s good news for farmers and gardeners.
Rainfall Amounts:
24 hours ending 8 a.m. Monday: .01-.50" Eastern Townships and northern Coos County NH, 60% coverage. Scattered T-.33" (30-50% coverage) St. Lawrence/Richilieu Valleys of s'n Quebec, far northern Vermont, and southern Coos County NH in overnight showers.
24 hours ending 8 a.m. Tuesday: Scattered T-.25".
Drying Conditions: Today: Good. Minimum relative humidity 35-40%. Monday: Fair to good drying outside of any early showers northeast, and any scattered PM showers or thunderstorms north of RT 2. Minimum relative humidity 40-50%.
Frost: None expected.
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