October 25, 2014
The forecast for all of Vermont, and adjoining New Hampshire, New York, Quebec, and Massachusetts:
Today: Areas of valley fog burning off. Some morning sun, then increasing afternoon clouds. Showers developing in NY and the St. Lawrence Valley mid-afternoon, reaching the Green Mountains late. Milder. Highs in the 50s north, to near 60 south. Winds turning to the south and southwest 5 to 15 mph.
Tonight: Showers likely north this evening, and scattered south, tapering off. Showers re-developing over the northern mountains after midnight, while it becomes partly cloudy south. Lows in the 40s, some upper 30s in the Adirondacks. Winds southwest, shifting to the west near 10 mph.
Sunday: Some morning sun south, then lots of clouds and a few scattered showers, mainly over the higher terrain. Mostly cloudy north, a few breaks of sun, and scattered showers, frequent over the higher terrain. Highs in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Winds becoming northwest 10 to 15 mph, gusting to 25 mph.
Sunday Night: Variable clouds, with scattered showers north, mainly over then mountains, possibly mixing with snow and tapering off. Lows in the mid 30s to low 40s.
Monday: Partly sunny. A spotty rain shower over the higher terrain northeast. Highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s.
Monday Night: Periods of clouds. Lows in the 30s to low 40s.
Tuesday: Partly sunny and milder, becoming cloudy north in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
Tuesday Night: Periods of clouds, with scattered showers. Lows in the upper 40s to low 50s.
Wednesday: A chance of showers, mainly in the morning, becoming partly sunny. Highs in the mid 50s to low 60s.
Areas of valley fog burning off. Some morning sun, then increasing afternoon clouds. Showers developing in NY and the St. Lawrence Valley mid-afternoon, reaching the Green Mountains late. Milder. Highs in the 50s north, to near 60 south. Winds turning to the south and southwest 5 to 15 mph.
What a nice change – not dealing with the slow, soggy, stubborn storm that pestered us for the better part of the week. Its departure opened the skies last night, sending temperatures down to the 30s, while the leftover moisture was converted into some valley fog. A mix of clouds and sun starts the day, helping to burn off the patches of fog, while a light to moderate southwest wind develops. This should lift the thermometers into the 50s, flirting with 60 in parts of the Champlain Valley, and in southern areas.
While we may be done with last week’s storm, we aren’t done with the rain. What will be different is character of the weather system. A fairly fast-moving cold front in the Great Lakes is heading our way, preceded by increasing clouds and increasing south winds. At the moment, the front’s showers are mainly in eastern Ontario, near low pressure south of James Bay, but shows little in the way of showers as the front extends from the low south into the Great Lakes. As the southerly airflow increases, more moisture rides into the system, allowing showers to blossom and expand south this afternoon, starting north of Lake Ontario, expanding south as they reach the St. Lawrence Valley and Adirondacks about mid-afternoon. They’ll tend to be numerous north, more widely scattered south as they continue east in the Champlain and Hudson valleys later in the day, approaching the CT Valley by dark. As the showers move into NH, southeast VT, and the Berkshires this evening, they will become spotty in NY, mostly ending in NH before midnight.
Although it will be a quick shot of showers, more action will develop. Typical with a front moving through, attached to low pressure well to our north, a slot of drier air initially follows the storm, while moisture around the parent low wraps around and returns on winds that shift to the west and then northwest. At this point, the storm’s position favors more showers north, while our mountainous terrain gets involved. Clouds and showers begin to reform north, enhanced by the mountains, continuing into much of Sunday, rather numerous over the higher terrain, more scattered in the valleys. Farther south, periods of sun will linger in the valleys, while the mountains, especially the southern Green Mountains, force some scattered showers to develop. The air following the front is markedly colder, so over the mountains above 2500 or 3000 feet, snow will be mixed in.
The storm slowly lifts out to the northeast Monday, though its influence might still sponsor a spotty shower over the higher terrain northeast. During this time, another storm will be heading into the Great Lakes, tracking northeast into western and northern Quebec during the middle of next week. This sends another cold front our way later Tuesday into Wednesday, preceded by some mild weather Tuesday, warming into the 60s, before showers Wednesday deliver some chilly weather for the end of the week.
The summits will see some morning sun, then increasing clouds, with showers in the Adirondacks mid to late afternoon, reaching the Green Mountains toward evening. Moderate west winds, and a bit milder. Blustery and colder weather returns Sunday, with numerous showers of snow or rain, the summits in and out of the clouds north, and moderate northwest winds.
2000 FT........W 10>SW 25 mph..........NW 15 to 25 mph
4000 FT........W 15>SW 30 mph.........NW 20 to 35 mph
6000 FT.....NW>W 30 to 45 mph........NW 40 to 55 mph
2000 FT.............48 N/54 S........................38 N/48 S
6000 FT.............35 to 40.............................near 30
Winds at Lower Elevations:
Winds today from the south and southwest 5 to 15 mph, with waves on the open waters of Lake Champlain near 1 foot. Southwest winds this evening 10 to 15 mph, shifting to the west, with waves on the open waters of Lake Champlain 1 to 3 feet, subsiding to 1 to 2 feet. On Sunday, winds from the northwest 10 to 15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, with waves on the open waters of Lake Champlain 1 to 2 feet. Monday's outlook calls for west to northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.