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June 18, 2013

The forecast for all of Vermont, and adjoining New Hampshire, New York, Quebec, and Massachusetts:

Tonight: Clearing with patchy valley fog developing. Lows from the lower 40s in the cold spots north to near 50 south and in the Champlain Valley. Winds northwest this evening around 10 mph, diminishing to light and variable.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny and pleasant, though unseasonably cool. Highs from the upper 60s to lower 70s. Winds light, becoming north near 10 mph.

Wednesday Night: Mainly clear and quite cool. Lows in the 40s, with the cool spots around 40. Winds from the northwest at 5 to 10 mph during the evening, becoming light and variable after midnight.

Extended Forecast:

Thursday:  Sunshine, mixing with some afternoon clouds.  Highs in the 70s.

Thursday Night:   Mostly clear.  Lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

Friday:  Partly sunny.  Highs in the 70s.

Friday Night:   Partly cloudy.  Lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

Saturday:  Partly sunny.  Highs in the 70s, warmer valleys south near 80.

SIGNIFICANT/HAZARDOUS WEATHER:
None.

General Forecast:

Variable periods of clouds and sun.  Mainly dry through southern Quebec, an isolated shower possible elsewhere north, with scattered, hit-or-miss showers or a thunderstorm south.  Highs 65 to 70 north, in the low 70s south.  Winds light, becoming northwest near 10 mph.

Brief Discussion: 

Showers have been splattering central and southern portions of the region this morning, mostly producing light amounts, generally less than a tenth of an inch.  The last concentrated area is now moving through, and even that is scattered.  We’ll leave a chance of a scattered shower or thunderstorm for southern sections this afternoon, but as each hour passes the chances decrease.  Meanwhile, skies are clearing through the St. Lawrence Valley, and progressing southeast into the Adirondacks and northern Champlain Valley.  Winds are gently swinging into the north, feeding some cooler air into the area, balanced out with the increasing sunshine.  Readings now in the upper 50s to low 60s will ease into the 60s to near 70.  The clearing will gradually continue to the southeast through the rest of the afternoon.  Interestingly, there are some cumulus clouds bubbling up in southeast Ontario and southwest Quebec, likely part of an un-analyzed push of cooler air.  This could trigger a sprinkle north later this afternoon, though it would be isolated and very brief.

Yesterday’s cold front did pile up some cumulonimbus or thunderstorm clouds, the biggest ones in southern areas, where strong thunderstorms pounded Winhall and Newfane VT with 1 inch hail, and strong winds toppled a few trees along Rt. 30 near Pawlet, and east to Chester, VT, continuing into NH in Greenland.  That front has slowly moved south of the region, now running along the southern shores of Long Island, west to the Ohio River.   The front will continue south, introducing high pressure to the region – the center of some cool, dry air likely to control our weather through the balance of the week.

At midday, that high is centered just north of Lake Superior, stretching from southern Hudson Bay south to the boundary marked by the cold front in the Ohio Valley.  Earlier this morning, readings in parts of central Ontario and Quebec dipped to the 30s, a rather chilly morning as we get closer to the Solstice this Friday.  This cool air will likely mean 40s at night for us into Thursday, and possibly a few upper 30s in the coldest mountain valleys.  But the days will be quite pleasant, reaching the mid 60s to low 70s tomorrow, and gradually warming through the rest of the week.   This cool but dry air will finally deliver a long-awaited spell of quiet, dry weather that will last, more-or-less into the weekend.  I say more or less because a minor cold front developing in northwest Canada will sneak through Friday with partly sunny skies, and just maybe a spotty, passing shower.  It then falls apart over us, leaving just enough moisture to lead to a spotty shower over the weekend.  By that time, the high will have moved off to our east, permitting a milder southwesterly airflow to develop.  Temperatures will modify, with 70s during the day, and upper 40s to mid 50s at night, very close to the long-tern averages as we get to the Summer Solstice on Friday.   By the weekend, even warmer air arrives, along with some hints of summer-like humidity – nothing extreme, but something that has been missing since the first days of this month.

Mountain Forecast:

Today will feature lots of clouds and intervals of sun, an isolated shower north, and scattered showers or thunderstorms south.  The summits may be briefly obscured in any showers.  Mostly sunny and cool Wednesday.

WINDS................Tuesday......................Wednesday

2000 FT.....SW>NW 5 to 10 mph.........N 5 to 15 mph

4000 FT........WNW 5 to 15 mph..........N 10 to 20 mph

6000 FT........WNW 45 > 25 mph.........N 10 to 20 mph

TEMPERATURES

2000 FT...................60s................................60s

4000 FT...................50s................................50s

6000 FT...................40s................................40s

Winds at Lower Elevations:

Winds today starting light, becoming north to northwest near 10 mph, with waves on the open waters of Lake Champlain near 1 foot.   North winds near 10 mph this evening, diminishing to light and variable overnight, except persisting on Lake Champlain, with waves on the open waters increasing to 1 to 2 feet.  Winds on Wednesday light, becoming north near 10 mph, with waves on the open waters of Lake Champlain 1 to 2 feet.

**winds and waves may be higher in the vicinity of thunderstorms**

June 18th began the daylight hours with a sunrise at 5:06, and will finish up with a sunset at 8:37, the length of the day 15 hours and 31 minutes.  

Weather extremes on this date included a tornado tracking across portions of Franklin County in 1957.  The track ran from just south of Franklin, just north of Lake Carmi and northeast toward the Canadian border near West Berkshire.  According to the Vermont Weather Book, and the publication Storm Data, put out by the National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, NC, damage from the tornado was estimated at $58,000.

Variable periods of clouds and sun.  Mainly dry through southern Quebec, an isolated shower possible elsewhere north, with scattered, hit-or-miss showers or a thunderstorm south.  Highs 65 to 70 north, in the low 70s south.  Winds light, becoming northwest near 10 mph.

Brief Discussion:  

Yesterday’s cold front did pile up some cumulonimbus or thunderstorm clouds, the biggest ones in southern areas, where strong thunderstorms pounded Winhall and Newfane VT with 1 inch hail, and strong winds toppled a few trees along Rt. 30 near Pawlet, and east to Chester, VT, continuing into NH in Greenland.  That front has stalled through these same areas this morning, running from coastal Maine west to near Hanover, NH, Lake George in NY and continuing into the Midwest.  On the front, a minor low pressure area heading out of the Ohio Valley, and a related disturbance in the upper atmosphere are generating more showers through NY, and approaching VT.  They will be spotty north, and scattered south, though these initial showers are likely to fall apart this morning.  A second batch should develop during the day, primarily affecting southern areas this afternoon. 

Meanwhile, cool high pressure is progressing southeast through Ontario, with readings there in the 30s this morning.  Some of this cool air has already dropped readings in our northern mountains to near 40 this morning.  This cool but dry air will be our weather tonight into Thursday – finally a quiet spell of weather that will last, more-or-less into the weekend.  I say more or less because a minor cold front developing in northwest Canada will sneak through Friday with partly sunny skies, and just maybe a spotty, passing shower.  It then falls apart over us, leaving just enough moisture to lead to a spotty shower over the weekend.  By that time, the temperatures will have modified, with 70s during the day, and upper 40s to mid 50s at night, very close to the long-tern averages as we get to the Summer Solstice on Friday. 

Rainfall Amounts:   Isolated showers north, with amounts less than 0.10 inches, only covering 20 percent of the area.  Scattered showers or thunderstorms south, producing 0.10 to 0.25 inches, locally higher in thunderstorms, covering 40 percent of the area south.  Dry weather expected Wednesday and Thursday.  Isolated showers are possible Friday and Saturday, with spotty, light amounts.

Drying Conditions:   Drying conditions today will be fair to good, with a chance of hit-or-miss showers and thunderstorms, mainly south, and minimum relative humidities near 50 percent.  On Wednesday, drying conditions will become good to excellent, with minimum relative humidities near 35 percent.  Good to excellent drying continuing Thursday, continuing Friday and Saturday, though an isolated shower is possible.

Frost:  We are now past the average last date of frost in the cold spots of the region.  No frost forecasts will be issued on a regular basis until September 1^st, unless conditions warrant.