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May 16, 2012

The forecast for all of Vermont, and adjoining New Hampshire, New York, Quebec, and Massachusetts:

Tonight:  Showers and storms continuing this evening in eastern sections before moving through prior to midnight. Some storms this evening could contain large hail and damaging winds. Skies will clear from west to east overnight. Lows from the mid 30s in the northern Adirondacks to the upper 40s in southern New Hampshire. Winds becoming northwest 5 to 15 mph, with higher gusts early.

Tomorrow: Becoming mostly sunny and breezy. Less humid. Highs in the low to mid 60s. Northwest winds 10 to 20 mph, occasionally gusting to 30 during the afternoon.

Tomorrow Night: Mainly clear and crisp. Lows in the 30s to near 40, around 30 in
the mountain cold spots, with isolated frost possible. Winds light and variable.

Extended Forecast:

Friday:  Mostly sunny.   Highs in the mid 60s to low 70s.

Friday Night:   Mostly clear.  Lows in the 40s.

Saturday:  Partly sunny.   Highs in the low to mid 70s.

Saturday Night:   Partly cloudy.  Lows in the 40s to low 50s.

Sunday:  Mostly sunny.   Highs in the mid to upper 70s.

SIGNIFICANT/HAZARDOUS WEATHER:
Thunderstorms this evening could contain strong winds and hail.  If threatening weather approaches, seek immediate shelter.

General Forecast:

Yesterday's storm has slid off to the northeast, leaving a space between that storm and an approaching cold front from the Great Lakes. In that space, the clouds are breaking up, and the sun will warm the atmosphere. That should add to the energy available to create showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of the cold front later today, starting in the St. Lawrence Valley and Adirondacks early to mid-afternoon, reaching NH late in the day. Some of the storms could become strong, with gusty winds and hail. Following the front's passage this evening, showers will end west to east, and skies will begin to clear. Mostly sunny, breezy, and much cooler weather arrives tomorrow, the beginning of a stretch of fair weather, featuring a warming trend through the weekend.

Today:  Patches of fog and low clouds giving way to partly sunny skies.   Showers and thunderstorms – some with gusty winds and hail - developing in the afternoon in the St. Lawrence Valley and Adirondacks, spreading east to NH late.  Warmer.  Highs in the 70s.   Winds from the south near 10 mph.

Mountain Forecast:

The summits will start in the clouds and fog, then the clouds will break across the summits for a time.  Showers and thunderstorms developing in the Adirondacks in the afternoon, spreading east to the Green Mountains and Berkshires, reaching the White Mountains late in the day.  Some storms may contain heavy downpours, strong winds, and hail.  If threatening weather approaches, seek immediate shelter.  Summits clearing for lots of sunshine Thursday, blustery, and much cooler.

WINDS............Wednesday.....................Thursday

2000 FT........S 10 to 15 mph............NW 15 to 25 mph

4000 FT.......SW 10 to 20 mph.........NW 20 to 30 mph

6000 FT.......SW 15 to 25 mph..........NW 50 > 35 mph

TEMPERATURES

2000 FT...............near 70........................53 N/60 S

4000 FT...............low 60s.........................low 40s

6000 FT...............low 50s............................30s

Winds at Lower Elevations:

May 16^th features a sunrise at 5:23, concluding with a sunset at 8:11 this evening, which adds up to 14 hours and 48 minutes of daylight today. 

Early season heat was toasting the region on this date in 1932.  St. Johnsbury topped out at a record 91 degrees, while the cool waters of Lake Champlain held Burlington to 88, also a record for the date.  In typical May fashion, three days later the fields were white with frost.

Patches of fog and low clouds giving way to partly sunny skies.   Showers and thunderstorms – some with gusty winds and hail - developing in the afternoon in the St. Lawrence Valley and Adirondacks, spreading east to NH late.  Warmer.  Highs in the 70s.   Winds from the south near 10 mph.

Brief Discussion: 

Yesterday's storm has slid off to the northeast, leaving a space between that storm and an approaching cold front from the Great Lakes. In that space, the clouds are breaking up, and the sun will warm the atmosphere. That should add to the energy available to create showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of the cold front later today, starting in the St. Lawrence Valley and Adirondacks early to mid-afternoon, reaching NH late in the day. Some of the storms could become strong, with gusty winds and hail. Following the front's passage this evening, showers will end west to east, and skies will begin to clear. Mostly sunny, breezy, and much cooler weather arrives tomorrow, the beginning of a stretch of fair weather, featuring a warming trend through the weekend.

Frost:   No frost is in the forecast tonight.  Clear skies Thursday night may lead to scattered frost in the colder mountain valleys, mainly north.  A warming trend should follow into the weekend.

Rainfall Amounts:  Numerous showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, covering 80 percent of central and northern sections, producing 0.25 to 0.50 inches, locally higher totals in thunderstorms.  Scattered showers and storms in the southern third of the region, covering 50 percent of the area, with 0.10 to 0.25 inches expected, locally greater near any thunderstorms.  Dry weather expected Thursday into the weekend. 

Drying Conditions:   The clouds will break for periods of sun today, briefly drying things out, but numerous showers and thunderstorms developing this afternoon and evening will lead to fair to poor drying.  Minimum relative humidities near 50 percent.   Drier weather is expected Thursday and Friday, likely extending into the weekend.  Good to excellent drying conditions, with minimum relative humidities near 30 percent.