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May 25, 2013

The forecast for all of Vermont, and adjoining New Hampshire, New York, Quebec, and Massachusetts:

***FLOOD WATCH FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VT,  NORTHEAST NY, AND NORTHERN NH THROUGH SUNDAY***

Tonight:  Periods of rain and showers, especially from the Green Mountains west, with wet snow over higher elevations.  Accumulations of a trace to 2 inches above 2000 feet. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the St. Lawrence Valley.  Lows in the mid 30s to low 40s.  Winds northerly 5 to 15 mph.

Sunday:  Any morning snow changes to rain showers, tapering off south to north.  A chance of a morning shower in the St. Lawrence Valley, then partial afternoon clearing.  Highs in the 50s, except 40s in the central and northern mountains, and northeast. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph, gusting to 30 mph.

Sunday Night:  A few scattered rain or wet snow showers northeast ending, becoming partly cloudy.  Lows in the mid 30s to low 40s.

Monday, Memorial Day:  Partly sunny and cool.    Highs in the 60s, from 60 in the northern mountains, to 70 on southern valleys.

Extended Forecast:

Tuesday:  Mostly sunny, and not as cool.    Highs in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Tuesday Night:    Fair followed by increasing clouds, and a chance of a shower west late.   Lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

Wednesday:  Variable clouds and sun, with a chance of scattered showers or thunderstorms.    Highs in the 70s.

Wednesday Night:    Periods of clouds, and a chance of scattered showers or a thunderstorm.   Lows in the 50s.

Thursday:  Variable clouds and sun.  Highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

SIGNIFICANT/HAZARDOUS WEATHER:
Rain and wet snow will continue through tonight.  Saturated ground and high river levels may lead to additional flooding.  Those living near, or who have interests along rivers should monitor the situation and be prepared to move to higher ground if it becomes necessary.  Snow is expected above 1000 feet tonight and Sunday morning, with some accumulations above 2000 feet possible.

General Forecast:

***FLOOD WATCH FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VT, NORTHEAST NY, AND NORTHERN NH THROUGH SUNDAY***

Today:  Rain, except showers in the St. Lawrence Valley.    Breezy and raw.  Temperatures remaining in the 40s.  North to northwest winds 10 to 15 mph, some gusts to 35 mph.

Brief Discussion: 

The Memorial Day weekend is starting with a nor’easter.  While we think of this kind of storm in the winter, they do make appearances in the spring, even as late as June.  A storm is strengthening just east of Cape Cod this morning, and will slowly spin north toward the mid-coast of Maine by Sunday morning.  The counter-clockwise circulation sweeps moisture in from the Atlantic, and pulls cold air in from the north – a general northeasterly airflow that gives this type of storm its name.  Temperatures in the 40s this morning, some 30s over the higher terrain, are not likely to change much through the day. 

This cold, soaking rain will aggravate the already swollen streams and rivers, and flooding is possible through Sunday afternoon.  The Barton River in northern VT, and the Ausable River in the eastern Adirondacks are already above flood stage.  The flash flooding in northwestern VT Thursday has left that area very susceptible to more flooding and washouts.  Those who live near rivers, or have interests there, should monitor water levels closely, and be prepared to seek higher ground if necessary.   The National Weather Service continues a Flood Watch through central and northern VT, as well as Essex and Clinton Counties in NY, and now extending into northern NH, through Sunday.

It is cold enough that some wet snow is falling over the mountain tops, with snow levels dropping later today and tonight, so that many elevations above 1000 feet could see some wet snowflakes, and above 2000 feet, accumulating snow of a trace to 2 inches is expected.  The mountain tops above 3500 feet, where it will be mostly snow, could see 2 to 6 inches.  Late tomorrow, some partial clearing and lifting clouds could reveal some snow-capped mountains in the Adirondacks and Green Mountains.  The same could be true Monday morning farther east into the White Mountains.

This late-season nor’easter will be lifting north through eastern Maine and into New Brunswick, allowing the showers to taper off southwest to northeast Sunday, ending last across the northeast Sunday evening.  Cool high pressure stretched from the Ohio Valley north to the Canadian tundra will elongate, a piece of it breaking off and building southeast through New York, and then off the mid-Atlantic coast Monday into Tuesday.  While it starts cool, the coldest piece of this high remains to our north, which means sunshine and moderating temperatures are in store, climbing back to the 70s by Tuesday.  At that time, a storm in the Great Plains tracking northeast, and high pressure off the coast will encourage and warm, southwesterly airflow, generating a warm front through the Midwest and Ohio Valley.  This warm front will lift toward us Tuesday night with increasing clouds, and a rising chance of showers or a thunderstorm later Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Mountain Forecast:

A winter-like weekend over the higher terrain, with snow above 3500 feet through Sunday, but lowering during the day today to less than 2000 feet by Sunday morning, then back up to 3500 in the White Mountains Sunday afternoon, and above the Adirondacks and southern Green Mountains.  Snowfall of 2 to 6 inches possible.  Below the snow level, moderate to heavy rain at times through tonight, then tapering off southwest to northeast Sunday morning.  Winds moderate to strong from the north, becoming northwest.  In addition, summits will be in the clouds above 2500 feet, occasionally lower than 2000 feet through tonight.  Clouds will be lifting across the Adirondacks and southern Green Mountains Sunday, remaining over the northern Green Mountains and White Mountains.

WINDS............. Saturday…………..…..Sunday………………....Monday

2000 FT........N 25 to 35 mph…..…NNW 20 to 30 mph….…NW 15 to 20 mph

4000 FT........N 35 to 50 mph……..…N 30 to 45 mph………NW 20 to 30 mph

6000 FT......N 35>NE 65 mph…….N 30> NW 65 mph….….NW 30 to 50 mph

TEMPERATURES

2000 FT................30s………………46 SW/40 NE…….………55 N/63 S

4000 FT.............near 32………....……..near 40………..………45 N/53 S

6000 FT................20s………………….25 to 30……………………30s

Winds at Lower Elevations:

***A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN***

Winds today from the north to northwest 10 to 15 mph, gusting to 35 mph, with waves on the open waters of Lake Champlain building to 2 to 4 feet.    North winds persisting tonight 10 to 15 mph, gusting to 30 mph in the Champlain Valley, with waves on the open waters of Lake Champlain 2 to 4 feet.   Winds on Sunday from the north to northwest 10 to 15 mph, gusting to 30 mph, with waves on the open waters of Lake Champlain 3 to 5 feet, subsiding to 2 to 4 feet in the afternoon.

Sunrise for May 25th is at 5:14, followed by a sunset at 8:21, delivering 15 hours and 7 minutes of possible sunshine.

On this date in 1832, 8 inches of snow was reported near Burlington, VT according to David Ludlum’s’ “The Vermont Weather Book”.  May snow are not unheard of, though they do seem to come in spells.  Each May from 1812 to 1817 reported snow enough to measure.  1832 and 1834 also noted spring snow.  Numerous May snows were recorded from the 1850s to the 1870s, and then became spotty thereafter.

***FLOOD WATCH FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VT, NORTHEAST NY, AND NORTHERN NH THROUGH SUNDAY***

Today:  Rain, except showers in the St. Lawrence Valley.    Breezy and raw.  Temperatures remaining in the 40s.  North to northwest winds 10 to 15 mph, some gusts to 35 mph.

Brief Discussion:  

The Memorial Day weekend is starting with a nor’easter.  While we think of this kind of storm in the winter, they do make appearances in the spring, even as late as June.  A storm is strengthening just east of Cape Cod this morning, and will slowly spin north toward the mid-coast of Maine by Sunday morning.  The counter-clockwise circulation sweeps moisture in from the Atlantic, and pulls cold air in from the north – a general northeasterly airflow that gives this type of storm its name.  Temperatures in the 40s this morning, some 30s over the higher terrain, are not likely to change much through the day. 

This cold, soaking rain will aggravate the already swollen streams and rivers, and flooding is possible through Sunday afternoon.  The Barton River in northern VT, and the Ausable River in the eastern Adirondacks are already above flood stage.  The flash flooding in northwestern VT Thursday has left that area very susceptible to more flooding and washouts.  Those who live near rivers, or have interests there, should monitor water levels closely, and be prepared to seek higher ground if necessary.   The National Weather Service continues a Flood Watch through central and northern VT, as well as Essex and Clinton Counties in NY, and now extending into northern NH, through Sunday.

It is cold enough that some wet snow is falling over the mountain tops, with snow levels dropping later today and tonight, so that many elevations above 1000 feet could see some wet snowflakes, and above 2000 feet, accumulating snow of a trace to 2 inches is expected.  The mountain tops above 3500 feet, where it will be mostly snow, could see 2 to 6 inches.  Late tomorrow, some partial clearing and lifting clouds could reveal some snow-capped mountains in the Adirondacks and Green Mountains.  The same could be true Monday morning farther east into the White Mountains.

This late-season nor’easter will be lifting north through eastern Maine and into New Brunswick, allowing the showers to taper off southwest to northeast Sunday, ending last across the northeast Sunday evening.  Cool high pressure stretched from the Ohio Valley north to the Canadian tundra will elongate, a piece of it breaking off and building southeast through New York, and then off the mid-Atlantic coast Monday into Tuesday.  While it starts cool, the coldest piece of this high remains to our north, which means sunshine and moderating temperatures are in store, climbing back to the 70s by Tuesday.  At that time, a storm in the Great Plains tracking northeast, and high pressure off the coast will encourage and warm, southwesterly airflow, generating a warm front through the Midwest and Ohio Valley.  This warm front will lift toward us Tuesday night with increasing clouds, and a rising chance of showers or a thunderstorm later Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Rainfall Amounts:   Rain through tonight, tapering off Sunday.  Additional rainfall will range from 0.10 to 0.25 inches in the St. Lawrence Valley south to the Hudson Valley and east to southern VT and the Berkshires, increasing to 1.0 to 1.5 inches from the Champlain Valley and north of Rt. 4 east into NH and the Eastern Townships.  Dry weather returns to the St. Lawrence Valley Sunday, and to the rest of the region Sunday night, lasting through Tuesday.  A chance of showers returns late Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Drying Conditions:   Fair to poor drying conditions today through Sunday with periods of rain and showers, and minimum relative humidities near 70 percent, except partial clearing in the St. Lawrence Valley Sunday afternoon, with fair drying, and minimum relative humidities near 50 percent.  Drying conditions Monday improving to good to excellent into Tuesday.  A chance of showers returns late Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Frost:  No frost is expected through the weekend, however, temperatures may drop close to 32 over the mountains tonight and Sunday night, mainly above 1500 feet.  Moderating temperatures expected next week.